Interesting to read about the reported spat between Osborne and the Ministry of Defence over who controls the Trident replacement project. Apparently Osborne has zero confidence in the MoD’s ability to deliver the new subs on time - in the event that they are given the go-ahead by parliament next year. Who knows what tensions and turf wars exist behind the scenes in Whitehall.
But what struck me most forcibly about The Times article which reported this (12/11/15) was the reference to “a £40 billion programme” to build the four subs for Trident replacement. The article later suggests that “a new price tag” for Trident replacement will be announced in the Strategic Defence and Security Review, expected on 23rd November. Prior to this, every estimated bill has been significantly lower.
In the 2006 White Paper which first proposed the replacement, the estimate was in the region of £15-20 billion (at 2006/07 prices) for a four-boat fleet. The 2010 Strategic Defence and Security Review concluded that “the overall cost of the submarine and warhead replacement programmes and associated infrastructure remains within the £20 billion cost estimate foreseen in 2006 at 2006 prices.”
The latest reference to cost in Parliament comes in a written answer from Defence Minister Philip Dunne on 23 October 2015, stating that “The 2014 Update to Parliament set out an estimate for the Successor submarine acquisition of around £25 billion, based on a four boat solution, spread over some 25 years. These estimates are currently being refreshed to inform the Comprehensive Spending Review and Strategic Defence and Security Review.”
Well I call an increase from £25 billion to £40 billion a pretty unpleasant form of refreshment! And don't forget, this is just the cost of building the subs - lifetime costs are likely to add at least another £100 billion. How can costs jump so significantly, irrespective of which Ministry runs the project? Answers are needed, and they’re needed fast. MPs need to hold the government accountable for this – and it needs to be questioned before the SDSR is launched.